Betting strategy
- We bet on fighters with edge > 0% and win probability above the threshold set below
- Stake is 10% of bankroll per bet, capped at the max bet cap set below
€
✓1000
✓2500
✓5000
✓10000
✓25000
✓50000
✓100000
Max bet cap
- Default is 5,000€, the real liquidity limit for a single bet on Pinnacle before it starts moving the market
- You can raise it to explore hypothetical scenarios, but real execution above this size gets harder
€
✓500
✓1000
✓2500
✓5000
✓10000
✓20000
Min win probability
- Floor is 50%. The underlying data only includes bets already filtered to proba > 50% at the source, so a lower threshold has no effect
%
✓50%
✓55%
✓60%
✓65%
✓70%
✓75%
✓80%
✓85%
✓90%
→
Walk-forward backtest: retrained monthly, predicting the following month iteratively. Train 2012-2021, Test 2022-01, then Train 2012 to 2022-01, Test 2022-02, and so on (expanding window, one month at a time).
Bankroll Record
Monthly Performance
Model probabilities are evaluated against Pinnacle's margin-adjusted closing probabilities (The Odds API).
Model Calibration
Upcoming Event
Past Events